Monday 6 February 2017

Risk




OK, quick pop quiz. You live in a major western capital, population 5 million. What would be more likely to kill you in a given time, a terror attack per week that kills 100 people or a 1% annual chance of nuclear destruction?

This isn't hard maths. 50x100 in a year would be 5,000 terror deaths. 1% chance of 5 million deaths is 50,000. The nuclear attack is TEN TIMES more likely to kill you.

What we have in the current sphere is of course a lot, lot less than one terror attack per week per capital. One per year of that size is significantly odds against. In London we've had one in living memory (7/7). There's always a small chance of a 9/11 style larger attack but in 20 years that's happened once in one capital with 3,000 deaths.

What I'm getting at of course is that we over-estimate the risk *to ourselves* of the small, localised attack and under-estimate the risk of the unlikely but devastating global event. Any time a terror attack of that size happens, a good example would be the Paris attack last year, it's all over the news for days. We see the pictures, it sticks in our minds. We're being told about the terrorist threat all the time. How often do you hear about the nuclear threat? Finger in the air, you might hear about the terrorist threat 100x as often, when it's the nuclear threat that's 100x more likely to kill you. That's probably an underestimate in both cases.

During the US election campaign, and now more than ever, this was the main reason I was anti-Trump. There are a shit-ton of other reasons of course, but completely aside from policy, completely aside from the misogyny and racism, the number one issue for me is not ending up trapped under a pile of rubble with third degree burns, dying by inches screaming for water. Trump is mentally unstable and completely unsuitable, in terms of temperament, to control the US nuclear arsenal. And control it he does, the whole system is SET UP to ensure that the President has immediate and unrestricted control of the system.

This is what worries me far, far more than a random terror attack. This is why, in practical terms leaving morality and ethics aside, it simply does not make sense to defend the Trump administration because they are "making us safer". Trump is in his seventies, and as pointed out on Twitter, if you see clips of him from even 15-20 years ago it's very striking how much more articulate and generally together he is (while still being an awful person LDO). He is in mental decline, I still believe that it's a job he didn't want, at least to start with, and the constant criticism is something he's not at all used to facing.  If he lasts 2 years (if we last 2 years) I can see him going full Howard Hughes. Howard Hughes with the nuclear codes.

Sleep well.

* Image is the album cover to Megadeth's "Risk". Much criticised at the time for being too radio-friendly, I quite like it.

** Anyone who actually reads this might notice I have deleted the previous post on Whataboutery. I just don't think on reflection it's particularly strong.

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